Did the Lakers win the Anthony Davis Trade?
A small warning to those cheering the death of the Lakers.
This post is born out of a Tweet. I started writing this on Christmas 2021, where the Lakers fell to the Nets. Usually, that wouldn’t be cause for concern, but the Nets are missing Harden, Durant, and Irving. The Lakers went all in for LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and it would appear with injuries and age that their time may be up.
I will say, if you aren’t a fan of the Lakers, enjoy this time. Make the insults, kick them while they’re down because they will be back. A brief reminder for those that forget NBA history. Since the three-point era, the Lakers have not only been the winningest and one of the most dominant squads, you could argue, they’ve been one of the most unlucky. Let’s review!
A History Lesson - Lakers Don’t Die!
In 1991 after losing in the NBA Finals — which they arguably could have won, a post for another day, the Lakers lost three-time MVP and three-time Finals MVP Magic Johnson to HIV complications. What’s more, former #1 pick and Finals MVP James Worthy was injured in the Finals and never quite the same after. It was a mere six seasons before they were a contender again, thanks to Shaq and Kobe, and a mere nine seasons before they went on to win a threepeat.
In 2004 the Lakers imploded. They lost in the NBA Finals, which they arguably should have won, and everything went to hell. Three-time Finals MVP Shaquille O’Neal left to the Heat. Hall of Fame coach Phil Jackson also departed. The Lakers would miss the NBA Playoffs for the first time in a decade the following season. It took them four seasons to return to the NBA Finals before winning back-to-back titles.
In 2013 the Lakers went all-in on Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. Dwight and Nash both dealt with injuries, and the Lakers lost disappointingly in the first round of the playoffs. Dwight departed in the offseason. Nash never returned to form. Under new ownership, the Lakers made foolish moves and missed the playoffs for seven years! To tack on a little bad luck to this era. The Lakers almost traded Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom for Chris Paul in 2011. However, since the NBA owned the Hornets, the trade was shot down by then-commissioner David Stern. So the Lakers failed with two potential star moves. Regardless, after seven seasons? The Lakers won an NBA title with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The Lakers may match their last lousy streak, but if we use history as a guide, the Lakers won’t stay bad for long.
Another History Lesson - Count the Rings!
One weird comment I keep hearing about the Lakers is how the NBA Bubble Title deserves an asterisk. And there are two things I want to say here. First, the playoffs are an inherently flawed system for deciding the “best” team in the NBA. If we were interested in that, we could look for the team with the best record or SRS — a team’s point margin adjusted for their strength of schedule. Many playoffs have had injuries or bad bounces cost a team. The Lakers had a very favorable run to the NBA title in 2020, which is an odd note for a team in the West. Part of this is because they were the number one seed, by, you know, having the third-best record in the NBA. The Lakers also easily defeated the Nuggets and Heat, who played spoiler to the stronger opponents the Lakers were supposed to face.
The other note is that titles in NBA history are silly, and teams still count them. For example, a big battle is between the Lakers and the Celtics. Both teams boast the record of most titles at 17. Who will hit 18 first? But I think it’s ridiculous for either team to try and use 17 as the record.
The Lakers earned five titles while they were in Minnesota. And, as some of us have noted, until George Mikan’s jersey is in the Lakers’ rafters, none should count. What’s more, the NBA/BAA in the 40s and 50s was a small league, often with under ten teams.
On the same note, the Celtics won eleven of their titles in the same shrunken NBA. The largest the NBA got in the Bill Russell reign was 14 teams. Most seasons, it was eight! And let’s keep going. In 1968 a rival league, the American Basketball Association, or ABA, was formed. It lasted nine seasons, and by its end, the top ABA teams were as good or better than the top NBA teams. As such, the competition in the NBA wasn’t as intense. The Celtics won four of their titles in this span.
Only a few more notes. The NBA didn’t have free agency until 1976. Essentially if a team drafted good players, they kept them their entire career unless ownership decided to trade them. As we’ll note, most of the Celtics titles fall in this era, as do the Minneapolis Lakers titles.
One more change off the top of my head. Until 1983, the NBA gave a bye to the top seeds in the first round of the playoffs. Tack on another Celtics title and two Lakers (actually in Los Angeles this time).
It’s easy to point out how historical NBA Finals were super different. And, if you are convinced that suddenly the Bubble Finals will get treated differently than the 60s or the lockout-shortened seasons? You’re fooling yourself. The Lakers went all-in for LeBron James and Anthony Davis. And they got a title. That’s the goal of every team in the NBA. The 76ers spent four straight seasons being the losingest team in the NBA, and it was justified that they might be able to win a title. And in that regard the Lakers won the trade for Anthony Davis easily. But let’s drive the point home.
Reviewing the Anthony Davis Trade
A quick reminder to acquire Anthony Davis, the Lakers lost:
Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wanger, and De’Andre Hunter.
They also traded three first-round picks (2021, 2023, 2024) and a second-round pick (2022), and cash. I’ll be rude here. In the land of the NBA, none of these are worth anything. Non-lottery draft picks can easily be acquired, in some cases for cash. And to the team in the best market in the NBA? Money is meaningless for the most part too. While it’s possible the Lakers’ draft picks in 2023 and 2024 are lottery picks, they are so far in the future as to be next to useless. The Lakers had an MVP-level LeBron James with a very short title window. Waiting for future players was not the right play. In fact, for most teams, if you are given the option between future draft picks or good players now? You take the good players now!
Anthony Davis played star-level in 2020. Sadly, Anthony Davis’ health has been sliding. In 2021 he played limited minutes, and his production dropped. That trend has continued this season. But I will argue that one season of Anthony Davis? Worth it. An old Jeff Van Gundy axiom is whichever team acquires the best player in the trade wins. The Lakers got an MVP-caliber center. Game over.
It’s easy to eliminate most of the outgoing players from the Lakers in the trade. Moritz Wagner and De’Andre Hunter were and remain unproductive NBA players. Jemerrio Jones was waived and wound up back on the Lakers! Isaac Bonga has bounced around. Perhaps he’ll be a productive NBA player with decent minutes, but it has yet to happen.
That leaves us with three players. Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, and Brandon Ingram. Josh Hart is, in many ways, the story of what was supposed to happen. He’s a talented-looking young player that has kept up his production. Two odd notes, the Pelicans have played Josh Hart off the bench and in limited minutes. So despite getting a productive player for Anthony Davis, it appears they don’t know what they have. Also, it has taken almost three seasons for Hart’s production to start approaching the level where the Lakers might regret him for Anthony Davis. Again, time they didn’t have!
Lonzo Ball is similar to Josh Hart, and this season looks impressive. He’s another promising young player that would grow into a productive and possibly star player. One problem. The Pelicans traded him away. Admitted, Tomas Satoransky was a promising-looking guard as well. That said, Lonzo took years to approach Anthony Davis’ level, and the Pelicans didn’t even capitalize on his talents!
Finally, Brandon Ingram is the most amusing. In our opinion, Ingram was an overhyped draft prospect. And he lived up to that reputation. With the Lakers, Ingram was decent but a slightly below-average player. The problem? Ingram scored lots of points, and in the NBA, teams tend to pay up for these players. In New Orleans, Ingram has remained below average — despite his all-star nod. And the Pelicans doled out a five-year $158 million contract for him! In many ways, overhyped scorers that were draft high but never panned out can be considered hot potatoes. Rest assured, had the Lakers kept Ingram; they would likely have paid up as well. So, oddly, Ingram was a win for the Lakers!
To recap, the Lakers lost a lot of useless draft picks, a bunch of below-average players, a good player the Pelicans kept but don’t play, a good player the Pelicans let walk, and an overhyped scorer, the Pelicans, gave a massive contract to. And they got an elite player that helped them to a title. Yes, it will be a bummer if Anthony Davis follows the route of other top-tier athletes that have their careers shortened by injury. And, if you believe the Lakers have a string of bad luck, Anthony Davis fits that mold. But there is no way to slice this trade that doesn't point to the Lakers winning. And while some bad luck may have them down, I wouldn’t bet on it for now. That said, I won’t fault anyone for enjoying this too much. I say that as a Nuggets fan that saw his team’s best chances fall to Lakers squads that went on to win the title. An event I suspect will happen again in about seven seasons. See you then!
-Dre
As with almost any Lakers post, I would be remiss not to acknowledge Chris Yeh and Brian Foster. We've spent countless hours discussing the Lakers over the years on the Boxscore Geeks Podcast. Any post on them is almost guaranteed to be an expansion of comments from the number one Lakers fan Chris Yeh and the added insights of Brian.