The 2022 Lakers and the Myth of the 2004 Lakers
Were the 2004 Lakers a failure or just unlucky?
Special thanks to Chris Yeh for this story. As one of the best Lakers fans out there, he has repeatedly uttered: “Karl Malone for Medvedenko!!” (the most recent being on our last episode of the Boxscore Geeks Show) in disgust many times in our basketball discussions over the years. I finally dug into the numbers and wasn’t shocked to find Chris was right! Thanks, Chris, and sorry!
The Lakers have traded away the last of their young talents to acquire Russell Westbrook this offseason. The Lakers now sit with a “Big Three” in LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. Tack on an aging Dwight Howard, and it’s impossible not to draw parallels to the 2004 Lakers, who had Shaq and Kobe with Karl Malone and Gary Payton. And here’s the funny thing, this team is often pulled out as a cautionary tale. Except, that makes no sense. For those that don’t recall, the 2004 Lakers were defeated soundly in the NBA Finals and imploded soon after, with the Lakers missing the playoffs in 2005. However, was it really that bad? I say no.
First, the Lakers actually finished top of their division and third in their conference with 56 wins. This was an improvement of six wins from the season before. It’s hard to call that a failure. What’s more, the Lakers ended up missing decent time from their core. Shaquille O’Neal missed fifteen games, which had become the norm at that point in his career. However, Kobe Bryant missed fifteen games, which was atypical at that point. I believe this was a combination of injury and his trial. Karl Malone was the biggest shock. He’d played seventeen seasons and never missed more than two games in a season. However, on December 21st, Scott Williams fell on him in a game against the Suns. Malone went on to miss forty games. Despite all of these injuries, the Lakers still finished with a top seed. What’s more, they followed a Phil Jackson strategy - being healthy for the playoffs. Shaq, Kobe, Malone, and Payton all played well during the regular season, and all went into the playoffs in playing shape.
According to SRS (Simple Rating System), the Lakers were a bit weaker than advertised. At the end of the NBA season, here’s how things shook out:
San Antonio Spurs 7.5 SRS (57-25, #3 in the NBA)
Minnesota Timberwolves 5.9 SRS (58-24, #2 in the NBA)
Sacramento Kings 5.4 SRS (55-27, #5 in the NBA)
Detroit Pistons 5.0 SRS (54-28 #6 in the NBA)
Indiana Pacers 4.9 SRS (61-21 #1 in the NBA)
Dallas Mavericks 4.9 SRS (52-30, #7 in the NBA)
Los Angeles Lakers 4.4 SRS (56-26, #4 in the NBA)
As a reminder, SRS combines both the average point margin a team wins by and the strength of their opponent. It’s not shocking that, on average, the teams in the West with slightly weaker records than, say, the Pacers or Pistons likely faced stronger opponents. Even with that in mind, the Lakers were the seventh-best team, on paper, by their performance and the fifth-best in their own conference. But here’s a key, the playoffs are a different beast. As mentioned, Phil Jackson made it a point to “save Shaq for the Playoffs,” which won him three titles. Here’s how the Lakers looked going into the NBA Finals in 2004:
MPG: Minutes per Game, GP: Games Played. Regular season numbers listed first, playoff numbers (pre Finals), next.
Kobe Bryant: 37.6 MPG, 65/82 GP -> 43.6 MPG, 17/17 GP
Shaquille O’Neal: 36.8 MPG 67/82 GP -> 41.4 MPG, 17/17 GP
Gary Payton: 34.5 MPG 82/82 GP -> 35.5 MPG, 17/17 GP
Karl Malone: 32.7 MPG 42/82 GP -> 39.8 MPG, 17/17 GP
The Lakers star core jumped substantially. Gary Payton was the same player in the regular season and postseason, but Shaq and Kobe both went from playing around 80% of their games to 100% of their games and tacking on about five minutes per game. Karl Malone added seven minutes a game and went from 50% of his games to 100%. And here’s the rundown, if we use the regular-season production of the Lakers based on their Conference Finals minute allocation, they were a 0.72 win per 48-minute team. Or, more concretely, a 60 win team. The Pistons were 0.69 wins per 48 minutes or a 57 win team by their Conference Finals minutes. Like the Lakers, they improved in the playoffs relative to their regular season numbers. Regardless, they were, on paper, a worse team than the Lakers.
The Lakers were unlucky on December 21st to lose Karl Malone to injury. Despite that, he got healthy, and the Lakers entered the NBA Finals as the favorites both on paper and by their record. It’s worth noting, the Lakers took down the Spurs and Timberwolves on route to the NBA Finals, who you may recall, were the top two teams by SRS in the NBA in 2004. But the Lakers bad luck repeated itself. In game two of the NBA Finals, Karl Malone injured his knee. He “valiantly” played through it as the Lakers won by 8. But it was a bad sign as Karl Malone had a bad game. In game three, he played terribly and actually exited in the middle of the third quarter with only eighteen minutes played, replaced ominously by Stanislav Medvedenko. He only managed 21 minutes in game four, a loss. And couldn’t suit up for game five, where the Lakers finally fell. The Lakers offloaded a majority of his minutes to Stanislav Medvedenko, who, at his best, could be called a mediocre bench player, and at his worst, one of the bottom performers in the NBA. In a series with a razor-thin margin between two of the best teams, replacing a star forward with a bad backup? Well, it played out as expected.
Trust the Process
Let’s revisit the plan. The Lakers planned to go “all in” on one last run out of Karl Malone and Gary Payton. A fluke injury curtailed their regular season, but despite that, they still finished a top seed and were able to beat the best teams in the NBA playoffs. Then another fluke injury cost them the NBA Finals. The Lakers plan worked 100% as expected, but player health got in the way. The only downside with going all-in on stars is you have very little left for reserve players. And the current Lakers are in the same boat. If Westbrook, LeBron, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard can all stay in playoff shape? The Lakers are terrifying. If Anthony Davis or LeBron gets injured in the playoffs and is replaced by Melo? Then 2004 could repeat itself. But to use an old idiom that Chris Yeh brought up discussing this: “Banners fly forever.” Attempting to win a title with a risky strategy is much preferred to waiting for better circumstances. The Lakers fell apart in 2005. Gary Payton and Shaquille O’Neal left. Karl Malone retired. The Lakers missed the playoffs. However, it only took three years before the Lakers had stars knocking on their doors, and they were back in the NBA Finals. If the Lakers fall this season, rest assured, it will only take a few years to regroup. And regardless of the outcome, it’s hard to call acquiring a star to try and get “one last title” with an all-time forward a failure.
-Dre
Yeh had the perfect quote: Flags fly forever.