Should the 76ers Have Traded Joel Embiid?
With Ben Simmons rumors abound, was there another way?
Five years after Sam Hinkie, the architect of The Process in Philly was ousted, his strategy was vindicated last season. The Sixers finished with the best record out East with a team anchored around two stars he acquired by tanking: Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. One is a Top 10 win producer, the other Top 40—both “stars” they should want to keep but in two different classes. After the Sixers’ playoff run ended in disappointment, Daryl Morey and staff hopped on the bus driving over Simmons while doubling down on Embiid. Conventional wisdom says Embiid is the better of the two because he’s, the higher scorer (28.5 to 14.3 points per game last season). But followers of my thinking will know to be wary of such thin analysis. And I’ll say the perception of the 76ers situation may be slightly off.
A common axiom in business is “buy low, sell high.” The rumor mill this offseason has been Ben Simmons is unhappy and wants out. The same rumor mill seems to say Daryl Morey is actively shopping him while asking a high price, but no one is biting. And let’s be clear, if Ben Simmons is on the block, he’s worth the price. Ben Simmons is 25 years old, has made three straight All-Star games, and last season made the All-Defense first team and placed second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. His advanced stats back him up too. He put up 10.5 Wins Produced at 0.268 Wins per 48 Minutes. The Wins Produced formula estimates the number of wins a player contributes based on their box score statistics and position. 0.100 WP48 is average, 0.200 is star level, for perspective.
Ben’s Price is Low
The issue with Ben Simmons is his price is low. In the history of the NBA, getting even returns on trading away a star is rare. Getting even returns for a star when their price is slashed? Even lower. Ben Simmons' woes are odd, to be honest, but understandable. Ben Simmons forgot how to shoot Free Throws in the playoffs, hitting only 1/3 of his free throws in the second round. This impacted his scoring totals, which dipped below 10 points per game in the second round. In the series losing game, Ben Simmons only took four shots. And the easy narratives followed. Could the 76ers truly trust a player that was such a liability on offense to lead them to the promised land?
Despite his problems, the irony is that Ben Simmons actually put up good numbers against the Hawks. Ben Simmons had a WP48 of 0.232, below his regular-season number, but still quite good. And this actually reveals the true value of Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons does everything. In the first round, which the 76ers won handily, Ben Simmons almost averaged a triple-double, with a WP48 of 0.495 to boot! He still shot 60% from the field in the second round and averaged almost 9 assists per game with a low turnover rate. He pulled down over a steal a game, and almost a block a game, while still rebounding a good, albeit below his regular-season average, rebound rate. And to stress, if you believe Ben Simmons has defense not captured in the boxscore, that was there too. The Atlanta Hawks shot poorly from the field and lost the rebound battle.
But as we’ve known forever, the NBA focuses on points, and Ben Simmons missing free throws and not being aggressive hit his perceived value in a few bad games. The seven disappointing games the 76ers had to the Hawks followed 58 regular-season games where Ben Simmons was deemed both an All-Star and All-Defense worthy, and a first-round series that Ben Simmons was absolutely stellar in.
Both Doc Rivers and Joel Embiid called out Ben Simmons’ performance in the playoffs. And this has resulted in Ben Simmons allegedly demanding a trade. This is fairly public and has further hurt Simmons' draft stock.
To stress, a bonafide star player had a good season followed by good playoffs where his shooting numbers struggled in one series. He’s 25 years old and has four years left on his deal. In what world do the 76ers think trading him is a good idea? Conversely …
Joel Embiid’s Price is High
Last season Joel Embiid was also an All-Star. He placed 3rd in MVP voting. And, while the Wins Produced numbers say Ben Simmons was better, at 0.208 WP48, Embiid easily qualifies as a star, especially if, like Simmons, you argue he has added defensive value. But there were two red flags for Joel Embiid. Embiid only produced 7 wins in the regular season, and that’s because he missed 21 regular-season games. Like Ben Simmons, he had a stellar first round of the playoffs against the Wizards (a 0.355 WP48), but he only played in four of the five games, missing the fifth due to injury.
It’s easy to think Simmons’ missing free throws or missing aggression are to blame for the 76ers’ second-round loss, but Joel Embiid actually had a much worse series. His WP48 was 0.051, which wasn’t just a decline below his regular season. It actually knocked him into the below-average territory. In a game early in the series, Joel Embiid shot 4-20 in a game the 76ers lost by three. This was a common narrative during these playoffs. A star player would get injured. They’d play through the injury valiantly. However, in many cases, the player played much worse, and their team lost. James Harden is the best example.
This has been a common thread throughout Embiid’s career. Embiid missed the first two seasons of his career with injuries. Since then, he’s missed at least 18 games a season to injury. And, in these last playoffs, he was injured and played worse after the fact. And a truly rough part in professional sports is that coming back from injury is, at best, an inconsistent process. When Embiid is healthy and playing well, he’s a star. But he’s been a volatile player his entire career, and it’s hard not to attribute some of that to having to deal with time off the court and coming back from injury.
The Ships are Burnt, and the Path is Set
The first draft of this article had an idea. The 76ers should trade Joel Embiid. It would be an unexpected move that would allow the 76ers to arbitrage. Basically, they could buy low on Ben Simmons and sell high on Joel Embiid. However, as @SportMediaPause noted to me: Joel Embiid just signed a super-max extension, meaning the 76ers cannot trade him during the next season. This is not the worst thing in the world. Despite noting all of the red flags with Embiid, the reality is a star in the NBA is rare. The performance Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid put on in the first round of the playoffs are what title squads are made of.
As noted, Ben Simmons has been an all-star for the past three seasons. Here’s an interesting recap of the 76ers playoffs those years:
In 2019 the 76ers finished third in their conference, made the Conference Semifinals before falling on a triple-bounce game seven buzzer-beater to the eventual champions.
In 2020, four games into “Bubble Basketball,” the 76ers lost Ben Simmons to injury. At the time, they were two games out of a top-four seed. Without Ben Simmons, they finished in the sixth seed before falling in the first round.
The verbose two sections above have recapped 2021, but tl;dr; injury to Embiid hurt them against the Hawks.
Basically, the “lack of playoff success” in the past three years has been: bad luck, Ben Simmons’ injury, Joel Embiid injury. The 76ers have chosen to roll the dice on Joel Embiid. It would seem bizarre to give up on Ben Simmons now. Especially since the last time, the 76ers entered the playoffs without Ben Simmons they were swept in the first round. The 76ers can keep Simmons and Embiid and try and make it work. But in the end, if the 76ers decide to buy high and sell low on their star duo? Well, that will be hard to process.