Andrew Wiggins and the Value of Missed Shots
Examining Andrew Wiggins and a depressing lack of movement in the Moneyball Era.
Before we get going, let’s say a few things.
While I don’t think Andrew Wiggins was a good All-Star choice, he was a decent NBA player at the time of selection.
I do think Andrew Wiggins is a fine starter, which is clearly enough to compete for an NBA title.
In game 5 of the NBA Finals, Andrew Wiggins did indeed have a productive and star-worthy game.
Ok, with all that out of the way? Game five made me slightly depressed at how little the analytics movement has moved and how lucky the Warriors are.
Gary Payton and a History of Stumbling
Years ago, Joe Lacob, co-owner of the Warriors, gained infamy for proclaiming the Warriors “Light Years Ahead” of the league, before his team fell into a 3-1 hole in the NBA playoffs and ultimately lost a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals. Lacob has recently proclaimed the Andrew Wiggins trade the best trade in Warriors’ history. More on that shortly.
But while Andrew Wiggins was getting the credit for winning the Warriors game five of the NBA Finals, my data said something else. Wiggins had a +5.4 point margin, meaning, all else being equal, his production would result in a team winning by +5.4 points. Which, let’s be clear, is excellent. This, however, ranked third on the Warriors, behind Gary Payton(+9.5) and Klay Thompson(+5.5). In a game, the Warriors won by 10; Payton himself was almost the difference.
And we’ll talk a little bit of the nuance in the numbers here shortly, but Gary Payton is the exciting piece to me. If we examine the 2022 Golden State Warriors using Wins Produced, their best player, by total wins, is Steph Curry. No surprise. But their second-best player? Gary Payton. In fact, from a per-minute standpoint, Gary Payton was the most productive player per minute on the squad. I’ll expound on Payton’s value in a future Boxscore Geeks Show Podcast.
A reminder, the Warriors cut Gary Payton preseason, but he asked to get back on the squad, almost interviewing for a video scout position. Payton follows a list of talented players that the Warriors lucked into. Andre Iguodala and Kevin Durant basically forced their way onto the Warriors squad, modifying their contracts and leaving better deals and 55+ win teams to do so. You may remember them as 100% of the current Warriors Finals MVPs. There is no way Gary Payton will win Finals MVP. It goes without saying, his production was massive in keeping the Warriors a top 4 seed. Indeed, had they faced the Suns before Chris Paul sadly degraded, they might have gone home in the first round. And as noted above, Payton has played great in the playoffs. At least, when he was able to play when he wasn’t injured. This included being huge for the Warriors in a must-win Finals game.
I’ll also point out that the likely Finals MVP, should the Warriors win, is Steph Curry, a player that the current ownership didn’t draft and was also on the trading block several times before the Light Years Warriors arrived.
It makes sense for an owner to tout their own decisions as all-important while ignoring the luck or existing product. Such a thing is all too normal in Silicon Valley. It just makes me sad. Speaking of which.
No, Wiggins was never a Good Decision
One of the trickiest parts as an analyst arguing with the casual fan is the difference between a bad player and an overpaid player. By the thinnest of margins, Wiggins qualifies as a “Derek Fischer Player.” Namely, a close-to-average starter on a squad of multiple star players. And such players are essential. Too many teams get a star or two and then surround them with subpar players, which cost them in the playoffs. The Memphis Grizzlies with Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson are such a squad.
Here’s the problem, Andrew Wiggins is on a max contract. When the Timberwolves traded Andrew Wiggins to the Warriors, his Wins Per 48 for the Timberwolves was 0.029 at the Shooting Guard position, the weakest position in the NBA. 0.100 is “average.” Since joining the Warriors, Wiggins has put up 0.100 WP48 productions if we count him as a Small Forward. Of course, the Warriors routinely play him as a Power Forward, which dips him into the slightly below-average territory.
With apologies, if your team decides to invest over $100 million and four years into a player (Wiggins contract at the time of his trade), then “Average” just doesn’t cut it for me. Especially when, as a 24-year-old, this was well outside his current body of work for the Timberwolves.
Let’s end this already long article on two subpoints on a more significant point. Missed shots are bad! And, they’re tough to detect in the NBA, which is constantly changing.
Missed Shots are Bad Part 1 - Game 5
As noted, Wiggins had a good game, but far from a standard “MVP game” in game 5 of the NBA Finals. In game 4, which Steph Curry won with his 40-point performance, Curry put up a Point Margin of +9, well above Wiggins’ “MVP game.” And this might seem baffling to some. Wiggins scored 26 points and 13 rebounds! And this is where I’ll lose many of you. With apologies, Wiggins’ 26 points, as a whole, didn’t help the Warriors. Wiggins’ True Shooting % for game 5, which factors in threes and free throws, was 53.5%. League average in the NBA this year? 56.6%. Even the Boston Celtics, who have the 2nd best defense in the NBA? They hold their opponents, on average, to 53.8%. Wiggins shot below average for his position, for the league, and even for his opponent. And, it’s really hard for a player on a team with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to have a strong case for why they had to take bad shots. Let’s rundown Wiggins’ misses.
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by himself!
Rebounded by Draymond Green, who passed it back to Wiggins for a shot immediately after the previous miss.
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by the Celtics
Rebounded by Kevon Looney
Rebounded by the Celtics
Wiggins took 23 shots, he missed 11 of them, and 8 of those went right back to the Celtics. This isn’t a complicated concept, missed shots are bad! And sadly, Wiggins is not a great shooter. Last season he hit 56.8% True Shooting, his best ever. This was 0.4% below league average. This year at 56.0%, he was 0.6% below league average. And when a player misses shots, most of the time, they give the opponent the ball back. And that isn’t good. But I’ll give a little fairness to why this point still doesn’t land.
Missed Shots are Bad Part 2 - They’re Getting Worse!
Let’s pretend I transported Andrew Wiggins back to the 2001-2002 season. A mere 20 seasons ago. Let’s pretend he put up the same stat line I’m so wantonly bashing. Guess what? Most of what I’m saying is wrong. At 56.0% True Shooting this season, Andrew Wiggins is the Sacramento Kings on offense (shooting-wise). In 2002? He’s better than the top offense in the NBA, which was the Dallas Mavericks with Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki. He’s not a slightly below-average forward on a questionable contract. He’s an above-average forward on a slightly overpaid contract.
In sports, players are constantly improving. Players have gotten better at shooting, better at scoring at the rim. If you’re a basketball fan, it can be challenging to look at a player like Wiggins, who would have easily deserved All-Star nods in the early 2000s, and be confused why nerds with TI-Calculators would say he’s below average. But the simple reality is, like many sports, basketball is zero-sum. For someone to win, someone has to lose. Wiggins is an ok player. He’s going to likely help the Warriors to a title. But he’s not worth a max contract, and he’s not a Finals MVP, and he’s not the best player the Warriors of ever traded for. And that’s because missed shots are bad, and Wiggins, relatively to the modern NBA player, misses too many shots.
-Dre